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Trade Policy Activity Index

Trade Policy Activity Index

A novel composite indicator measuring the evolution of global trade policy since the Global Financial Crisis, covering 197 countries and territories.

About the TPA Index

The Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index is a novel monthly indicator of global trade policy dynamics covering 197 economies since the Global Financial Crisis, spanning January 2010–October 2025 in the original release, with updated data to be made available through this website. Methodological details are available in the underlying paper (Centorrino et al., 2025).

How has the TPA Index been constructed?

The TPA Index is built using a Dynamic Factor Model applied to records of a wide range of policy measures — including tariffs, non-tariff measures, and subsidies — drawn from two complementary sources: the WTO Trade Monitoring Database and the Global Trade Alert. The model treats these records as imperfect signals of latent global trade policy activity and extracts a parsimonious global trade policy factor capturing their common dynamics. A trend-cycle decomposition distinguishes long-term shifts from cyclical fluctuations, while a block structure separates the global signal from category-specific variation.

What series does the TPA Index include?

The dataset provides a headline Trade Policy Activity Index, a monthly global indicator of trade policy activity. The original release covers January 2010 through October 2025, with periodic updates planned. The dataset also includes a set of sub-indices by policy category and country group. Separate series track facilitating measures and non-facilitating measures, with the latter further split into a restrictive subset and a residual composed largely of subsidies. The index is also estimated separately for G20 and non-G20 economies, alongside a GDP-weighted variant. All series are normalized to mean zero over January 2010–December 2011.

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File Description Format
TPA Index Data (baseline) Data with the original TPA Index and sub-indices (including a README sheet with variable definitions) ZIP Download
Working Paper (PDF) Centorrino, Diakantoni, Keck, Ruta, Sztajerowska, Wei (2025) PDF Download
Replication Package Full code and data supplement ZIP Coming soon
TPA Index Data (updated) Periodically updated TPA index and sub-indices [Latest version: May 05, 2026] XLSX DTA R Coming soon

Citation

Please cite as:

Centorrino, Samuele, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska, and Yuting Wei (2025). "Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity." IMF Working Paper No. 2025/220. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. DOI: 10.5089/9798229028356.001
BibTeX @article{centorrino2025tpa,
  title = {Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity},
  author = {Centorrino, Samuele and Diakantoni, Antonia and Keck, Alexander
            and Ruta, Michele and Sztajerowska, Monika and Wei, Yuting},
  journal = {IMF Working Paper},
  number = {2025/220},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.5089/9798229028356.001}
}

Authors

Samuele Centorrino International Monetary Fund
Antonia Diakantoni World Trade Organization
Alexander Keck World Trade Organization
Michele Ruta International Monetary Fund
Monika Sztajerowska International Monetary Fund
Yuting Wei Bocconi University

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. They do not represent the positions or opinions of the WTO or the IMF, or WTO or IMF Members, IMF Executive Board, or IMF management and are without prejudice to members’ rights and obligations under the WTO. Any errors are attributable to the authors.

© 2025 Centorrino, Diakantoni, Keck, Ruta, Sztajerowska, Wei.